David Hines (hradzka) wrote,
David Hines
hradzka

India and Pakistan: uh-oh

What's that? You have the bad habit of sleeping at night, and you'd like to stop? Okay. Here you go:

MUMBAI, India (AP) -- Pakistan's spy agency masterminded the July 11 train bombings that killed more than 200 people in the Indian city of Mumbai, the top police officer in charge of the investigation alleged Saturday.

. . . Roy said Pakistan's Directorate of Inter Services Intelligence, or ISI, the country's top spy agency, began planning the attacks in March and later provided training to those who carried out the bombings in Bahawalpur, Pakistan.

Pakistan has in the past denied any involvement in the attacks and it was not immediately clear what implications the revelations would have on the fragile peace process between the nuclear-armed neighbors.


Well, for one thing, it'll put a hell of a crimp in Musharraf's book tour.

I've long suspected that the world's first nuclear war would be between India and Pakistan. Between this and the official Taliban Habitat Nature Preserve up in North Waziristan, Pakistan is being one hell of a nasty neighbor. If the Indians are right -- and there's a good chance they are -- the situation absolutely requires a military response. on the part of India. No wonder Musharraf is hawking his book: the man wants out. Multiple attempts have been made to kill him, and I suspect he realizes his options are a) retirement and profitable exile in Europe or Asia somewhere or b) being the subject of an assassination/coup by the ISI. I can absolutely believe the ISI willing and capable of deliberately murdering their neighbors; I doubt that Musharraf, who knows just how small a thread his life hangs by, was involved or aware of it before it happened, and if I were in his shoes I'd be actively trying to learn as little about it as possible while packing my suitcase for a one-way flight to Malaysia.

My bet is that the press conference is the first shot across Pakistan's bow. India would like to crimp down on the ISI's actions as peacefully as possible, and they'll want to rattle Pakistan's cage to give Musharraf a chance to purge the ISI, in the old Soviet sense of the word. Doubt it'll happen. Step B is more accusations, at higher levels. At some point, assuming India's will holds, the thing will come down to speeches in the UN or tanks across the border.

I hope it's just tanks. I don't see India using nukes first. Pakistan... you never know.
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