I will say this: there have been a lot of amazing things coming out of this, but to me one of the most amazing was this video (warning: blood and trauma is visible at the end). That building is a Basij militia HQ. The people inside it have training and guns. The people outside it have righteous indignation. And they try to take the building. A mob of *unarmed people* tried storming a Basij militia HQ. That is some serious goddamn stones, friends. Even more amazing: they didn't immediately break and run when the Basij sent a guy up onto the roof with a rifle. He fires warning shots, and they hold, daring him to shoot them. Which he does. It's absolutely staggering that the people launched that assault. In the face of determination like that, it's not surprising that Mousavi told Khamenei to stuff his invitation. But that's how determined both sides are. They're all-in now. Everything depends on what the security forces do. If they're all willing to open fire on their own countrymen, it's over. If some of them flip, or a lot of them flip, then we have a whole new ballgame.
I've been disappointed with President Obama's handling of the situation, particularly in the beginning. I can understand wanting to play it low-key, but he played it *so* low-key that he pretty much appeared as if he didn't give a crap, which is the bad tack when you've got soldiers shooting protestors. He's slowly improving, but if this turns into an attempted Tienanmen, which I fully expect it will, he really needs to be ready to issue some strong statement.
The irony is that I don't expect Mousavi to be much of an improvement. Remember, one of the big clerics who's in his corner is Rafsanjani, who once famously remarked that Iran should nuke Israel, because even if Iran were obliterated by the retaliatory strike, it'd be okay, because there'd still be plenty of Muslims, but a hell of a lot fewer Jews. So there is not a lot of room for optimism. But I'm going to try to rustle up some hope.